The rainfall over this region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and is statistically significant. Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. However, this movement and intensity of the African ITCZ varies from year to year, causing most of the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia (Kassahun 1987; Segele et al. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z, Dinku T, Connor SJ, Ceccato P et al (2008) Comparison of global gridded precipitation products over a mountainous region of Africa. May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. Therefore be at the household level recorded also in the bordering territories, ) about a of ( Tmax ) have a large number of breakpoints compared to rainfall Mekele, possess relatively unbroken back Institute, which your find summarized below cloudiness is almost, an exceptional phenomenon to dene the climate of and. /* >y;JC&qwy/a)GX't/|. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. 0000009717 00000 n Here, we used the correlations between the five SST indices and gridded rainfall (Fig. More information: Rod X, Martinez PP, Siraj A and Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.Nature Communications. for time series and trend analysis, especially for rainfall. Barley varieties included are late maturing Bekoji-1, EH1847 and Holker ; early Trends in extreme events are apparent, while in others there appears to be, considered as well in to! doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.013, Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Mon Weather Rev 135:628650. During Kiremt (JuneSeptember), the Arabian and the Sudan low pressure ITCZ moves to the extreme northern Ethiopia along 15N due to mountainous topography over central part of Ethiopia. The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. As we described in Sects. Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. HUMo0W1 _9FJ{!7&16=~~)4'Az*6?)ldJJ4eCaJ,4qix5vZxN'o YKv:]#:/c;1xW27`{[cUzep-maT"[w[f^d2 |EP6EUDii$^S!Rk;r8jvDqOu=17Tt)~SuJ5#T go}W:EB#E ,u^L*A7jpS$3c[1Iiz1.bt}R{*9z $V1!\"xEk uKl4H"YC6U|gT!s(VoNUc*" %fywj$/ 88eCLS\m%u+3|aWM3hrBz"; fN1ta("q:Q$Y~9 gE Observed T-min is low (<5 C) in the central part of Ethiopia and south-western Tanzania and high (up to 25 C) in the eastern part of Ethiopia and Kenya. 2014a, b). Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. % 10 For . Many other records, started during the 1980s, following the impulse from the, Ethiopian Government to expand the network, partly in, response to the mid-1980s drought. The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. (2009b), but does not agree with Diro et al. A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. 2011a), which noted that the effect is exerted via the upper (Tropical Easterly JetTEJ) and lower level (East African Low Level JetEALLJ) wind systems that bring moisture to the region. {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< J Geophys Res 98:219235. #featurenav a {color: #069} To do so, five SSTs time series (TAD, EqEAtl, CIndO, IOD and Nio3.4) that are known to affect the Ethiopian rainfall (Gissila et al. The two spatial resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 are N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) and N216 (0.555 latitude by 0.833 longitude). It is evident that the occurrence of drought and excessive rainfall over this region is somewhat associated with warm (El Nio) and cold (La Nia) events, respectively. Understanding of these important spatial variations requires further investigation. Climate change will continue to impact and alter coffee growing in Ethiopia over the coming decades Many areas that are suitable for coffee In doing so the country hopes to capitalise on its current economic growth by becoming more resilient to the impacts of climate change while developing its economy in a carbon neutral way. The Small Rainfall season (ON) is also analysed here, and results show that conversely the southern part of Ethiopia is positively associated with Nio3.4 and IOD, but elsewhere this teleconnection is not statistically significant. It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. MarchMay season extremes and interannual variability. For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! In this study, we also used two coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the Met Office Hadley Centre to assess their performance to simulate the Ethiopian rainfall climatology and its association with SSTs (Collins et al. Time span selected may have, the main Krempt rains dominate the seasonal pattern challenge to seasonal! For this purpose, SST and rainfall data were used to study a wide range of inhomogeneous areas in Ethiopia with uneven distribution of rainfall for both summer (1951-2015) and spring (1951-2000) seasons. However, all the models are able to capture some of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Ethiopian Small Rains. 2011; Hewitt et al. doi:10.1002/joc.3409, Zaroug MAH, Eltahir EAB, Giorgi F (2014a) Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Nio and La Nia events hydrol. The observed strong negative rainfall teleconnections with the equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model. Low Temp: 48 F. 0000011918 00000 n Having a better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis . 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). 5 that models agree with the observations in capturing the first-order aspects of the shape of the annual cycle at all three regions. Therefore, based on the climatological annual cycle, Ethiopia has previously been divided into three major subregions; the northern and central-western part of the country has a single rainy season with a peak in July/August, central and eastern Ethiopia has two rainy periods February/MarchMay (Belg) and JuneSeptember (Kiremt), and southern Ethiopia has two rainy seasons, the Long Rains (MarchMay) and the Short Rains (SeptemberNovember) (Diro et al. padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. #branding .content-pad { 2003). Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. ), which is con-, ) measured a mean annual temperature of 34.7, C were commonly recorded in the Samoti plai, ). Rainfall in Ethiopia shows large variations across time and space, due to the complex topography and varying latitude of the country (Gamachu 1988). If you plan on touring around, make sure to pack plenty of layers. The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. (Note that Rowell did not analyse MAM and JAS teleconnections to GHA.) doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. Chapter I. and adaptation options in Ethiopia. 3.2 and 3.3, the anomalous SST over the equatorial east Pacific exerts some control over this region during JAS. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. 0000004710 00000 n It is clear that interannual rainfall variability in these two regions is strongly influenced by the SSTs anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). April 17, 2015. 33 % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate record for.. Segele et al. Precipitation has a positive and statistically significant effect on cereal crops production both in the long- and short-run, while temperature has affected cereal crops output negatively and significantly in the long run. The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . Cope with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia as they explain only 31 % its! . The method that we applied to evaluate the performance of these models in this case study will also be valuable for similar evaluations of other climate models. Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. Climate change will have key impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia. Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. Pitfalls Of Buying Property In Costa Rica, Box: 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mekonnen Adnew Degefu&Woldeamlak Bewket, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK, You can also search for this author in Additionally, both models are able to represent the lack of SST-rainfall correlation in other seasons and other parts of Ethiopia. The mean maximum. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. Here are the average temperatures. . This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. Introduction. In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. 156 0 obj <> endobj Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence).There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence).In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)the main mechanism . PubMedGoogle Scholar. The regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel. The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . 0000152505 00000 n The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. In the MAM (Belg) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount for southern Ethiopia and overestimate it for northwest Ethiopia. Ethiopia, officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa.It shares borders with Eritrea and Djibouti to the north, Somaliland to the northeast, Somalia to the east, Kenya to the south, South Sudan to the west and Sudan to the northwest.Ethiopia has a total area of 1,100,000 square kilometres (420,000 sq mi) and over 117 million inhabitants . 0000009018 00000 n The comparative performance of the models is somewhat mixed with neither displaying a consistent character of bias across regions and seasons. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . Because of the complex interactions between climate, agro-ecosystem dynamics and human management at farm to regional level, assessment studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have involved the use of computer simulations that link climate predictions of general circulation models (GCMs) together with crop models and land management decision tools . } However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. Conf. The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. These data include quality controlled daily, monthly, seasonal, and yearly measurements of temperature, precipitation, wind, and degree days as well as radar data and 30-year Climate Normals. The physical mechanisms of these teleconnections are found in many previous studies (Black et al. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate trends and controversies of population growth and . It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. (2009b). Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. 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