2016). The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Here are the average temperatures. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. 2010; Simane et al. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. **10% level of significance. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. 2011; Funk et al. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. 2006; Rashid et al. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. Conversely, low temperatures are recorded fromNovember to February.It is not easy to observe distinct variation in temperature between seasons as the sun is alwayshigh in the tropics. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. 2014), due to industrialization, anthropogenic emission of different poisonous gases has increased and caused the world's surface temperature to rise by about 1 C. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. temperature is high during the daytime in some places, and is considerably reduced at nightresulting maximum difference in the daily range.But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature issmall. These are: i. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Figure 1. 2005). Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. By comparison, time series of temperature indices show decreases in the intra-annual extreme temperature range and total number of frost days, as well as increases in warm nights. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. Summary of annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. 2013). However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. ; ed. Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Impacts in the Republic of Moldova: Researches, Studies, Solutions / Lilia Taranu, Dumitru Deveatii, Lidia Trescilo [et al.] With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. Autumn (September, October and November)Autumnis the season of the year between summer and winter. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. 2016). Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. This global warming (increase in surface temperature) may influence the long-term precipitation pattern; in addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of weather shock has led to an increase in sea level (Barnett et al. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Is it warming or cooling? The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. Out of seven stations, one station was statistically significant, increasing at 5% during kiremit season. Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. 2014). Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). Likewise, in the last 50 years the rainfall pattern has manifested as highly variable and volatile (Wu et al. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set.
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